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All ‘Plan B’ social distancing restrictions in England were lifted on 27 January. GDP is also likely to have fallen in the final month of 2021.ĬOVID-19 infections peaked at the start of the January and have been on a declining trend since. “Measures of mobility and social spending were soft through December, and retail sales saw an unexpectedly significant 3.7% month-on-month (m/m) fall. “Granted, the Omicron variant has almost certainly left the economy weakened as a result of greater consumer hesitancy and a rise in the number of people isolating. Martin Beck, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club, said: “While the case for the MPC raising interest rates in February’s meeting is far from unambiguous, the EY ITEM Club expects the committee to increase Bank Rate to 0.5% in the February meeting on Thursday. “This means that rates are likely to increase several more times this year as the Bank signals its inflation fighting intent even in the face of a squeeze on household incomes this year.” “While there is little the Bank can do about the short term inflationary pressures brought on by rising energy prices and supply chain issues, tightening monetary policy should help to keep inflation expectations anchored and prevent higher inflation becoming more deeply embedded in price setting behaviour.
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As such, the Bank is free to focus on inflation, which is clearly a growing concern for all policy makers. “Meanwhile, the labour market seems to have weathered the end of furlough better than even the more optimistic forecasts.
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“While Omicron is likely to have taken a dent out of economic activity in December and January, we expect this to be relatively small in the context of past lockdowns and therefore, that the economy should recover relatively quickly from here. Luke Bartholomew, senior economist at abrdn, said: “We are expecting the Bank of England to hike rates by 25bps next week, and start the process of passively reducing the size of its balance sheet. The Bank’s monetary policy committee will make an announcement on Thursday following its two-day meeting, with expectations that the rate will rise from 0.25% to 0.5% in order to tame inflation.Īn easing of tension over the impact of the Omiron variant on the economy, and the withdrawal of furlough support on the labour market, has led to a belief that after a short slowdown in December and January economic activity will pick up in the spring.
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Market analysts believe the Bank of England will kick off the first in a series of interest rate rises next week. Bank of England policy makers will announce their decision on Thursday (pic: Terry Murden)